Since the dawn of powered flight in the early 20th century, innovation has been the norm in aviation. This has unfolded on multiple fronts, from technological progress that saw the rise of biplanes, airships, turboprops, subsonic and finally supersonic jets, to business model innovation that brought commercial plane travel to the masses.
Today, a new generation of innovators is on the scene. Led by entrepreneurs like Sky Dayton, an early investor in Joby Aviation, and Jeff Fluhr, whose venture capital firm Craft Ventures recently closed a $500 million fund to support other cutting-edge companies, it’s bringing once far-off dreams of electric planes, unmanned air taxis, and bespoke commercial flying experiences for all a bit closer to reality.
Let’s take a closer look at six trends set to shape aviation for the rest of the 2020s and beyond.
Virtual Reality in Flight Simulators
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration licensed about 8,800 new pilots in 2022, according to the Air Line Pilots Association, Int’l. That’s not nearly enough to keep up with an expected increase in air travel that could push passenger volumes to 136% of 2019 levels by 2030, according to Bain & Company.
Through Craft Ventures, Dayton and Fluhr hope to change that. Their fund backs Loft Dynamics, which develops revolutionary, virtual reality-based flight simulators that provide superior pilot training on the ground, reducing the need for novices to take to the sky as often.
“We’re not going to solve [the pilot shortage] with traditional technology,” Dayton says. Training in VR simulators like Loft Dynamics,’ he adds, “is equivalent to flying in the actual aircraft…[at] a tenth to a twentieth the cost.”
In addition, in the not-too-distant future, futurists like Dayton and Fluhr believe AI will further improve flight simulator technology and other aspects of pilot instruction, widening the future pilot pipeline just as air travel takes off across the Global South.
Momentum for Air Taxis (For Real This Time)
“Where Is My Flying Car” is the partial title of J. Storrs Hall’s influential “future retrospective” on the lost promise of technological innovations that never (yet) happened. Since its publication in 2021, “where is my flying car” has become the futurist’s catch-all lament, a stand-in for complaints about the apparently plodding pace of advancement.
Perhaps Hall spoke too soon. Flying cars may well be a commercial reality by the end of the 2020s.
These “cars” won’t live in your home garage, at least not to start. But they could hang out at your friendly local helipad or general aviation airport, ready to whisk you from Point A to Point B across town. Bye, traffic!
One of Dayton’s portfolio companies, Joby Aviation, is considered a leader in personal short-haul air travel. Joby could begin commercial operations later this decade, taking market share from helicopters and ground-based livery services at significantly lower cost.
Electric Propulsion for Short-Haul Flights
Aviation startups like Joby have another innovation in store: They’re electrifying air travel, starting with the shortest flights first.
“Our goal at Joby has always been to make traveling by air as accessible, clean and quiet as possible,” says Joby Aviation CEO JoeBen Bevirt.
Joby aircraft are fully battery-electric, just like your neighbor’s Tesla. As Bevirt says, that makes them cleaner and quieter than the helicopters and Cessnas they hope to replace — a win for the environment and your precious time. It’s this dual value proposition that convinces forward-thinking investors like Dayton and Fluhr of the business case for next-generation aircraft propulsion.
Alternative Fuels for Longer Flights
Unfortunately, the laws of physics are stubborn, and we don’t yet have the technology to electrify medium- and long-haul commercial flights yet. Liquid fuels are more energy-dense than batteries, and probably will be for decades to come, absent a major technological breakthrough.
That’s a problem because aviation is responsible for about 3% of humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. To be good stewards of the environment for generations to come, we need to figure out carbon-neutral flight.
The answer lies in bio-based “sustainable aviation fuel” and “e-fuels” produced from renewable building blocks, rather than our dwindling supply of fossil fuels. Right now, aviation suppliers produce only about 100 million gallons of bio-based jet fuel and even less e-fuel each year, a drop in the bucket next to the 107 billion gallons of jet fuel consumed in 2024. But production could scale up quickly, reaching 10% of all commercial fuel volumes in the early 2030s.
A New Supersonic “Boom”?
That is, ironically, a lot quieter than first-generation supersonic passenger jets. That’s the dream of the brains behind Boom, a startup working to build the first privately funded supersonic commercial aircraft.
Boom has already put its “mini-Boom” test plane through the paces at least once, proving the technology works — including a far quieter transonic phase that’s sure to please people who live near major airports. Stay tuned for more soon.
The Rise of “Airport Cities”
Near most major airports, you’ll find clusters of synergistic businesses, like hotels, rental car lots, and warehouses serving cargo carriers. Yet most such clusters are not exactly well-rounded communities. Indeed, while nearly 70% of the world’s population lives within 100 kilometers (about 60 miles) of a commercial airport, few spend much time around them when they’re not traveling.
If future-forward investors like Sky Dayton and Jeff Fluhr have their way, that could change soon. It already is in some parts of the world, such as the Gulf region and southeast Asia, where explosive population growth is giving rise to a new, refined “airport city” concept. As they expand and multiply, these communities could act as test labs — and living, breathing billboards — for cutting-edge technologies, including life sciences, AI, and advanced personal transport.
A Bold Future for Flight
Aviation insiders expect each of these trends to increase in importance as the industry grows through the 2020s and beyond. They expect a range of related social, economic and technological trends to push the business forward, too.
In fact, many believe this is the most exciting time for flight since the advent of commercial aviation nearly 100 years ago. Whether you work in or around the aviation industry, fly commercially on a regular basis, or simply have a personal interest in powered flight, you’ll want to pay attention to what’s coming next.
